Orioles First Basemen – 2022 Review and Beyond

Present:

The 2022 season featured Ryan Mountcastle and Trey Mancini sharing (some) 1B duties until Mancini was traded to the Astros, with pickup Jesus Aguilar backing up Mountcastle.

Name Age G PA HR SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ BsR Off Def WAR
Mountcastle 25 145 609 22 4 7.10% 25.30% 0.173 0.303 0.25 0.305 0.423 0.316 106 0.7 5 -9.5 1.6
Mancini* 30 92 401 10 0 8.70% 21.40% 0.136 0.326 0.268 0.347 0.404 0.33 116 -1.1 6.4 -6.5 1.3
Aguilar 32 16 51 1 0 2.00% 25.50% 0.082 0.286 0.224 0.24 0.306 0.24 52 -0.3 -3.1 -0.8 -0.2

Mountcastle did not have as strong of an offensive season as in 2021 (thanks to both Walltimore and wild slumps and swings). Despite the drop in numbers, advanced statistics show that Ryan has had steady improvements each of his 2+ years in the Show. Average Exit Velocity (EV), Barrel %, Hard Hit%, xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, all increased in each year since Mountcastle’s debut. Ryan’s Savant Statcast numbers are very strong, other than Whiff% and Chase rate.

Defensively, Mountcastle improved from -1 to +1 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved), and OAA (Outs above Average) from -4 to +3. While not an obvious gold glover, Mountcastle provides solid defense.

Future:

The minors are fairly barren when it comes to first base prospects.

Name LVL Age PA BB% K% BB/K AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO Spd BABIP wSB wRC wRAA wOBA wRC+
Grenier AAA 25 392 15.80% 25.30% 63.00% 19.90% 0.337 0.316 0.653 0.117 5.8 0.27 -0.2 43 -8.7 0.309 83
Daschbach AA 24 402 13.70% 41.00% 33.00% 19.10% 0.328 0.362 0.69 0.17 2.8 0.314 -0.3 48 -2.5 0.317 95

It might seem strange to include Cadyn Grenier, but such is the lack of high level 1B talent in the system, and the organization put him at first for a number of games (particularly after seemingly making it clear he has been pushed out of having a 2B/SS future within the organization). There doesn’t really seem to be any immediate term help here.

Outside options and Free Agents:

Free agent catchers this offseason include (with ages):

Jose Abreu (36)

Jesus Aguilar (33)

Josh Bell (30)

Brandon Belt (35)

Brandon Drury (30)

Yuli Gurriel (39)

Eric Hosmer (33) – can opt out of remaining three years, $39MM

Trey Mancini (31)

Wil Myers (32) – $20MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Anthony Rizzo (33) – $16MM player option

Miguel Sano (30) – $14MM club option with a $2.75MM buyout

Carlos Santana (37)

Yoshi Tsutsugo (31)

What to do?

After some prolonged team slumps, it is fairly clear that the Orioles need at least one solid hitter to help shore up the lineup. There are certainly interesting names on the free agent list, leading off with Jose Abreu, as well as a potential in house option.

Jose Abreu

Reports that the White Sox are ready to move on from the former MVP are big news, as it is likely that there will be no qualifying offer extended to the slugger. While certainly up in age (turning 36 in January 2023), and with Abreu’s dropped power numbers, the raw numbers fail to tell the tale. His advanced metrics still show him at the top of his game. Abreu’s Avg Exit Velocity (93%), Max Exit Velocity (89%), HardHit% (97%), xwOBA (96%), xBA (98%), and xSLG (92%), are all in the 89 percentile or better, with the majority of those metrics near the top of the scale. An average walk rate, OAA, and declining but steady defense won’t hurt a team on the back end, particularly with shared 1B and DH duties. Abreu still put up a 3.9 WAR season this year, and while lower ISO numbers compared to career averages (.141 vs .215) are a little concerning, the league did overall face a lowered offensive environment, not to mention the Tony LaRussa-related issues the White Sox had this year, which clearly seemed to affect the entire team. Abreu’s WAR would have been near the top of the team this year, and shared duties with Mountcastle, and within the DH rotation, could provide a boon to the lineup.

Anthony Rizzo

Rizzo brings the big-name with early 2022 season performance, with a drop-off as the season continued. He was still able to put up a positive 2.4 WAR, with above average walk and on-base numbers. As a lefty hitter, he could thrive in Camden Yards, and provide some more thump to the order. Rizzo put up a .224/.338/.480 with a .818 OPS, with a wRC+ of 132, providing above average offense. His statcast numbers are mixed, with above average Max EV, xwOBA, Barrel%, xSLG, and BB%. Avg. EV and hard hit % were middle of the pack, but solid on base skills and power, even at age 32, should at least provide support for lengthening the lineup. ZIP projections for the next three seasons provide at least 2 WAR for Rizzo, so a short term deal wouldn’t hurt the team, particularly with no young prospects to man first base. Unless…

Jordan Westburg

Could Jordan Westburg find a home at First as a 1B/DH/Super Utility Man? Westburg had a very solid season in the Minors in 2022, making it all the way to AAA and earning accolades as the Orioles’ Minor League Player of the Year. Westburg put up a .273/.361/.508 line with an OPS of .869 in AAA in 91 games to finish the year. While drafted as a SS, Jordan has played all over the infield, notably except for 1B, which is understandable given his positive defensive reputation. As Fangraphs said in their review:

He moves well for his size and can play an acceptable shortstop at a 45-grade clip while providing plus defense at both second and third base. There are no special tools on display, but Westburg should be a decent hitter with decent power while providing decent defense at multiple positions. That all adds up to an everyday player who keeps you well above replacement level while you wait for a star to come along.

Westburg could be a perfect near-everyday super utility type player, backing up at nearly every infield position with at least average to plus defense, along with at least average to above average offense. Don’t forget Jordan just finished a season with a .508 SLG, hitting 39 doubles and 27 HRs this season.

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